The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

Abstract Background COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory the global spread worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. study objective was to assess and compare pattern Nigeria seven other during first 120 days outbreak. Methods Data extracted from World Bank’s website. A descriptive analysis conducted well modelling day one through countries. Model fitting using linear, quadratic, cubic exponential regression methods (α=0.05). Results similar patterns Egypt, Ghana Cameroun. daily death distribution those six out considered. There increasing trend confirmed cases During lockdown, growth rate 5.85 (R 2 =0.728, p < 0.001); however, it 8.42 =0.625, 0.001) after lockdown relaxed. polynomial model (CPM) provided best fit for predicting cumulative across all investigated there a clear deviation model. Using CPM, predicted number at 3-month (30 September 2020) 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, 0.001), things being equal. Conclusions Improvement control measures strict compliance with recommended protocols are essential. contingency plan needed provide care active case target attained.